France Elections: Marine le pen vs. Emmanuel Macron

When the Initial Results Are Expected

Polls show Mr. Macron has a clear advantage, but the margin will be crucial to determining the authority he will have to govern and his momentum going into legislative elections in June. Calling that margin, however, will be tough.

Most polling stations closed at 7 p.m local time, giving polling companies half the time they’ve had in the past to run samples through their models and provide the gold-standard estimations at 8 p.m. In major cities polls don’t close until 8 p.m. As in the first round, analysts warn that any results on social media before polls close should be treated with extreme caution because they can’t be based on the thorough sampling from hundreds of polling stations that is to calculate the estimations released at 8 p.m.

For the first time, the main polling companies will also attempt to estimate at 8 p.m. the number of blank or void ballots cast in the second round. That too will be key to determining Mr. Macron’s momentum after some supporters of candidates knocked out in the first round have said they will cast blank ballots as a protest against choosing between the upstart centrist and National Front leader Marine Le Pen.

Source: http://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/frelect

Who will be the next France President? Stay Glued for the results…

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